Polls

It’s no secret I live in a political environment, so naturally I’m engaged will all that’s happening amidst the current election cycle.

Lately, I’ve become obsessed with national polls and the various takes on the 2012 election from across the country.  I would love opinions from any of my political friends out there as to which polls they think are reliable- and by that, I mean where the process is more important than a desired outcome.

Let me explain where I am going with this…..Four years ago, I always felt like polls were being used to manipulate the direction of the election instead of presenting an accurate picture of popular sentiment. There were polls who way over-sampled certain demographics, polls that questioned only registered voters and those who used likely voters (those who actually have a voting record of participation).  There were even polls who completely ignored voter registration, which at the end of the day is a futile exercise if one is looking for reliable data.

Four years ago, most polling results were all over the place for a while, but in the last few months of the election cycle, seemed to show the same data and trends, regardless of their methodology.  It would seem that in the end, they all managed to predict the final results.

Today, I think what we are seeing in the polling data is not necessarily what is happening on the ground.  Most polls who use likely voters and don’t over sample, show a very close race….until another poll comes out presenting a completely different scenario.  Hmmmmmmm.

Once again, I find myself questioning the polling process and the data which the media uses on a daily basis to generate momentum for one candidate over another…… jury’s still out on that one!  So, I am conducting my own, not very scientific poll at all….just for the fun of it!  Enjoy!

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